Case Studies | Foresight Finance
Real-world examples of how businesses use probabilistic modeling to make better financial decisions.
Personal Finance · Time Allocation · Risk Diversified
A full-time employee with spare capacity faces a deceptively simple question: should they invest their extra hours into career progression — chasing promotions, building skills, strengthening their network — or divert some of that time into building a side income stream?
Conventional wisdom says focus on your career. It's your biggest income generator. Promotions compound. Side hustles are distractions.
But that advice treats your career like a guaranteed asset. It's not — it's a **concentrated** one. A single layoff drops your income to zero. We built Monte Carlo simulations for three different life-stage personas — each running two parallel 10-year strategies — to find out when the conventional wisdom holds and when it breaks down.
Venture Capital · Capital Allocation · Risk Adjusted
A venture capital fund is evaluating five early-stage startups, each starting with the same $5M initial balance. The companies span food-tech, education, enterprise AI, energy storage, and biotech — deliberately diverse to stress-test the evaluation method.
The question isn't which company has the best pitch deck. It's which investment delivers the best risk-adjusted return over a 5-year horizon. We built two sets of models: traditional deterministic projections (the kind you'd build in Excel — all fixed inputs, no variance) and probabilistic Foresight simulations with Monte Carlo analysis. The gap between what the spreadsheet says and what the simulation reveals is the entire point of this case study.
Investment Analysis · Investment · Risk Avoided
Test whether Shark Tank investors are biased when they favor food businesses over deep tech — or if the math of risk-adjusted returns justifies their choices. We modeled two $1M investment opportunities in Egypt's startup ecosystem using Monte Carlo simulation: a proven rice pudding chain (Roz bl Lbn) versus a pre-revenue robotics startup (RoboClean EG).
Personal Finance · Investment & Major Purchase · Risk-Optimized
Determine the maximum affordable house price and the minimum savings cushion needed to sustain a mortgage and living expenses — even under adverse scenarios like income disruption — without running out of cash.